Analysis

	Russian Stock Market Summary of June 24th, 2008.

A correction, the necessity for which was stated in the last summary, is in full swing. The falling rates are accounted for by the events in the foreign markets, where sales brought about testing of important levels.
   The week started with a rapid fall of September futures on the RTS Index, which dropped from 238,550.00 to 233,050.00 points. Today they went even below due to negative trends of the European session. The fall stopped at 230,130.00 points. The RTS index itself is at 2,310 points, thus it is too early to talk about any backwarding. However, the fact that the 2,300 point level serves as a certain psychological support level is mildly optimistic. The fall in the oil and gas sector is hard to explain as the sales continue in spite of the growing prices for oil and other natural resources.
    Nornickel shares dropped below 6,350 rubles, which was the last benchmark on the way down to 6,150-6,120 rub. However, even this level did not sustain and the price dropped to 6,050 rubles, the lowest value over the last 5 months. Purchases will probably start from 6,000 rubles on Thursday morning, unless the price goes to 5,850 rubles prior to that. The shares definitely look oversold and are falling faster than the market.
     Gazprom shares reached the price of 355 rubles last week, but could not stay higher than 350 rubles on the general background of sales. As a result, today during the day session these shares dropped to 337.65 rubles. The daily graphs show the local bottom at 333.50 rubles.
    In spite of the oil rates growth, Lukoil shares has been going down for five sessions in a row with the low at 2,313 rubles. From the May low of 2,700 rubles the shares dropped by almost 7%. However, the exponential growth from late January to mid-May resulted in a definite completion of the third wave. Thus, technically the reduction is quite reasonable. The rate may still drop to 2,270 rubles before a new rise.

    In expectation of the USA FRS resolution on the rates, which will be made public tomorrow afternoon, investors are getting nervous and trying to get into cash. Their concerns are connected with a probable completion of the monetary policy easing. Thus, even if the rate is not increased on Wednesday, but the US financial authorities predict a rate increase in the near future, the fall will continue. However, the statement is most likely to be moderate, with remarks regarding inflation and high oil prices, which have already become common in announcements of world financial experts. A possible scenario for Thursday is a moderate growth of the Russian blue chips. As opposed to this quite optimistic scenario, a possibility that the American Dow Index will drop below 11,700 points and lower is still effective. The Russian market will react to this in the most “bear” way.