Analysis

	Russian Stock Market for the week of February 25th – March 3rd, 2008.

The decline of the foreign stock markets has significantly affected the Russian stock market. In the middle of last week the RTS Index was at 2,116 points (50% retracement of the 2,360 to 1,859 decline), then it continuously declined, broke through the support line of the upward trend at 2,075 points, and its low on Monday was 2,010 points.  The goal is 2,000 points and 1,988 (50% retracement of the 1,859 to 2,116 points advance). While the support line of 1,980 points hasn’t yet been achieved and passed, a decline towards the middle of the range, in which the sideways trend is continuing, can be expected. Its upper limit is 2,120 points and its lower limit is 1,850 points. A break through 1,958 points will result in the Index declining to 1,920 and 1,900 points. The first approaches to the critically important supports at 1,880 and 1,860 may be accompanied by short-term purchase splashes.
Nornickel.
After a correction to 6,850 and 6,790 rubles, the rate soared to the resistance level of 7,220 rubles, which was prompted by the nickel price growth and the continuing purchase of shares. The key resistance of 7,440 rubles will remain till the end of the week. The sales are possible from 7,290and 7,305 rubles. In general, there are grounds for a growth in these levels. The decision of the ECB on the rates will be published on Thursday. Their reduction is likely to cause the European indexes to grow and as a result, the growth of the Russian indexes. However, on Friday the Non-farm payrolls will be published. Before that most players will prefer to transfer to money, so purchases at the end of the week may lead to short-term testing of 7,400 and 7,440 rubles with a following sharp rebound to 7,300 rubles.
Gazprom.
The shares of Gazprom are being traded within the sideways range without going above 322 rubles (50% correction of the decline from 365 rubles to 281.60 rubles). The correction was deeper than expected. The rate went down to not only 3003 rubles, but to 300 rubles, then to 295 rubles. The purchases from there brought the price back to 303 rubles. Upon a break through the 293 rub. mark, the rate will be going to the lower limit of the range of 288 and 281 rubles.
The purchases are from 300 rubles with the goals of 306, 310 and 313 rubles. The stop is below 295 rubles.
 Sberbank.
The rate reached a high of 86.40 rub (the forecasted level of 85 rubles was achieved and broken through, but 88 rubles was not achieved). Afterwards the price went down from 80 rubles to 76.20 rubles. Actually we can say that a reset attempt of the January lows at 75 rubles took place.
Purchases from the lows can be recommended with the goals of 80 and 81.80 rubles.
 The lower supports are at 74.24 and 74.65 rubles.
 Lukoil.
 The unstable growth to 1,870 rubles (38% retracement of the decline from the fall highs) changed into a decline of the rate to the middle of the range. In spite of the oil prices growth, the shares may continue their slow decline to the lower limit of the range to 1,650 rubles.
However, at first approach to 1,710 level, purchases can be recommended with the goal of 1,722-24 rubles.
The same holds true to 1,690 ruble level.  Upon the first approach to 1,650 ruble, purchases with the goal of 1,685 rubles can be recommended.

The increase of the interbank credit rates last week is seriously affecting the market. It made the players go to money, getting rid of shares. The liquidity problems in the Russian market haven’t yet become the centre of attention, but influence investors’ mood from time to time.