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The 2,150 level of the RTS Index, which was indicated in the last summary as a goal, was reached and passed due to the massive purchases of blue chip stocks. The high was on Monday at 2190.50 points, afterwards a correction took the sideways trend. Even if the Index correction continues down to 2.120 points, the bull trend will remain. Gazprom shares have gone through virtually all the levels, mentioned in the previous summary. A correction to 302.60 rubles resulted in long positions, which made the price rise to 318.40 rub. An attempt to go higher was resisted by the sellers, which dropped the price from 319.90 to 312.40 rub. Another attempt to reach the 318.20 rub. level today has been received by the sellers with the same enthusiasm, and currently the rate is at 312.10 rub. It indicates trading within the range of 310–318 rub. A short-term break through the lower range is probable, but in the mid-term an upward trend is expected first to 322-325 rub., then to 340 rub. Lukoil stopped at the 2,183 rub. mark, from there profit taking started, which dropped the price to 2,102 rub. A head-and-shoulders pattern was formed on the four o’clock graphs, which indicates that a price reduction to 2,040-2,085 rub. is probable. Around the physiologically important mark of 2,000 rub., purchases will start, confirming the existing trend. A repeated testing of 2,180 rub. is probable early next week. A break through this level will indicate the goals of 2,220 and 2,250 rub. Sberbank did not manage to get over the bad news from the West, where there appeared news of the next billion dollar write-offs of the major banks on mortgage bonds. This resulted in a price drop from 79 to 72.70 rubles. An attempt to go above 77 rub. was not successful and the rate dropped below 73.45 rubles. The testing of 72.20 will not appear strange. Moreover, it is reasonable to start buying only when the mark of 71.10 rub. is reached and even then – with close stop-loss orders. The rate is at 38% correction according to Fibonacci, which indicates that upon its confirmed overcoming, the prices may drop to 65 rubles. Nornickel shows a converging triangle on the daily charts with the upper limit of 6,920 and the lower limit of 6,670 rubles, upon a break through which the prices may drop to 6,360 rubles. Late April should finally clarify the situation with the distribution of assets among the major shareholders, merging with Rusal, etc. There still may be surprises but the price above 7,000 rubles is not very probable within the next two weeks. Moreover, the weekly closing prices below 6,300 rubles will indicate a further decrease in these shares. Recently the correlation between the trading for this issuer in London and Moscow has been more and more noticeable. Large volumes, as a rule, coincide with London sales and Nornickel rises on small volumes in Moscow. In expectation of the close leaving the stock market, RAO UES shares crashed by 4.5% during today’s session. The January crisis low of 21.00 rubles has already been tested. Investors are afraid that they will have to wait long for any profits on the shares, which they get instead. The decline within a year comprised over 40%. Currently the market is in the stage of correction, which is happening at the wave of profit taking from the growth within the last few weeks. Such growth is supported by the increasing oil prices but is hindered by the global economic situation, leaving few reasons to be optimistic.
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Return Analysis
