Analysis

	Currency Market Summary from March 26th, 2008.

The statistics on the American economy does not add optimism to the investors. The dollar has started falling again after the long Easter weekend. A testing of 1.5360 by the Euro resulted in a new wave of Euro purchases. The rate went up to 1.5733. The turning “double peak” figure is being formed. The rate may go up to 1.5790. Any attempts to go higher will be opposed to by purchases. At the end of the week the Euro will be dropping to 1.5580. The pound had a sharp turn from 1.9760 and has been trading above 2.0110. However, it dropped to 1.9950 after the comments by Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England. A testing of the 2.020 mark is possible by the end of the week with a further rebound. The Swiss franc is again more expensive than the dollar. A rebound to 1.0250 from the previous lows was short. If a low of 0.9630 is passed, the next wave goal in the mid-term perspective will be 0.8910. The Japanese yen is trying to form a turn at 100 yen per dollar. The supports are at 99.20, 97.90 and 95.60. The upper critical support is at 101.50. The Canadian dollar is being traded in the sideways trend with the limits of 0.9720 and 1.0350. The current trend is moving to the lower limit of the range. The market is quite nervously reacting to the economic data from the USA. However, in spite of the common sense, sales of the Euro may start from the highs, i.e. even if the data are negative for the dollar, it may strengthen, at least for a short time.

World Financial Market Summary as of March 26th, 2008. 
 

The European indexes grew after Easter. The same holds true for the American indexes. The Dow Jones Index got up to 12,600 points.
 

The European indexes grew after Easter. The same holds true for the American indexes. The Dow Jones Index got up to 12,600 points. It’s too early to talk about a confirmed turn, but a sideways trend under the present circumstances is not bad either. If the prices stay within the present limits, it may result in a growth. It’s obvious that most players are waiting and are ready to join any trend – sales if there is negative information on the banking sector due to a credit crisis, or purchases, if there is a sudden pause in the negative news. Oil. The prices dropped to 98 dollars per barrel for a short time and then returned to the upward trend with the limits of 99.3 and 101.5 dollars per barrel.
A decline happened within the 38% retracement of the 85 to 107 dollars per barrel advance. The demand is increasing due to the conflict in Iraq and probable interruptions in oil supply from this region. A decline is possible only because of concerns about the American economy future. If the recession becomes more obvious, a demand decline is expected from the world leading oil consumer. Gold. A turn from 904 dollars per barrel resulted in the rates advance to 950 dollars per barrel. In the near future the rate may go up to 954 dollars per barrel, followed by a correction to 924. The most probable scenario is a sideways trend within the limits of 905 – 945 dollars per barrel. A break through 900 dollars per barrel will result in testing 870 and 850 dollars per barrel. Silver. The support is at 16.24, the resistance is at 18.40 and 18.80 dollars per ounce. Sales are recommended from 18.40 and 18.80 with turning stops above 19.55.