Analysis

	Currency Market Summary for February 8th – 18th, 2008.

The sideways trend in the basic currency pairs shows uncertainty in the market moods as of the further dollar development.
Only the Japanese yen defined its trend, having broken through the upper limit of the range at 107.80. The rate was already at 108.60, and then there happened a sharp correction to the previous range limits. As a result the rate was over 108 yen per dollar.
The British pound has been traded in the downward range since the end of January, but the trend continuation was delayed by a sharp rebound from 1.9387 to 1.9738. This movement can be interpreted as the double bottom, but not as a turn. The closeness of 1.92, which is a critically important level, lets the market participants start buying the pound in advance without waiting for the price to approach 1.9280-1.9320. In case this level is broken through, the downward trend will get an additional stimulus and a new wave of the pound sales shall be expected with the goals of 1.89-1.85.
The Euro is not liable to sharp fluctuations and the expected decrease to 1.4350 hasn’t happened yet in spite of negative news from Europe. The rate is within the narrow range of 1.4440-1.4710. We adhere to the scenario when the Euro will gradually fall and the price will grow to 1.4850. We consider this to be a good selling opportunity.
The Canadian dollar has strengthened against the American dollar up to the par value or a little lower, but the further prices were at 1.01. Thus, our forecast of the 1.02 goal hasn’t yet been confirmed.
The speech by the US FRB Chairman B.Bernanke reduced the dollar bulls’ optimism, which appeared after announcement of the trade balance, but it did not bring any clarity as of the American monetary policy, though it did contain some negative comments on the American economy future.