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Analysis

Return Analysis

Russian Stock Market Summary for the week January 28th – February 5th, 2008.

The Central Bank of Russia raised its refinancing rate by 0.25%. It now comprises 10.25% per annum. Remembering the fact that inflation last year was out of control, these actions are delayed. Russian banks have liquidity problems, but the Central Bank did not follow the example of the FRB of the USA and help them through inflation increase.

The Central Bank of Russia raised its refinancing rate by 0.25%.  It now comprises 10.25% per annum. Remembering the fact that inflation last year was beyond control, these actions are delayed.  Russian banks have liquidity problems, but the Central Bank did not follow the example of the USA FRB and did not help them through inflation increase.

Gazpromneft shares remain within the downward trend, the lower range of which is 125 rubles and the upper range – 140 rubles. The current price is 130 rubles. A decrease is expected.
Gazprom shares failed to overcome the price of 320 rubles, so the rate will again try to go over 300 rubles.
Rostelecom is traded at 278 rubles. Its further dropping is prevented by the important support level of 275 rubles, where once met, the goal will be repeated testing of the 250 rub. price.

On the whole, the market shows signs that its decline has not yet finished.
The actions of the Central Bank can be only supported, but they are not likely to catalyze the market growth. On the contrary, that rapid and unstable growth, which started from 1,880 points on the RTS Index, will be even stronger.   This is confirmed by the fact that for the second week in a row the consolidated index of the Russian “blue chips” cannot rise above 2,000 points.  Only closing day prices over 2,056 points can make the buyers return to the market.  Prior to that we can expect trading within the range, with an unpleasant decrease.
 

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