Analysis

	Russian Stock Market Summary for the week of January 21st – 25th, 2008.

Even upon rapid decline of the American interest rates, it’s too early to talk about stable growth. But if the rates go down again by 50 basic points in the middle of this week, it’s possible that Thursday will start with purchases at the market opening.
This forecast contrasts to what happened last week when the Russian market declined after the announcement of the rate decrease by 75 points.  But the market may settle by Thursday and purchases from 1,880 points on the RTS Index look reasonable. The fact that this level resisted the buyers pressure is moderately optimistic, but the negative information from the foreign markets may result in the Russian market falling even lower - to 1,730 points on the RTS index.
The negative news is spreading. The market is full of rumours that a few major banks of Germany invested about 80 bln. in the American mortgage system. 
The events at Societe Generale, which lost over seven billion dollars due to fraud of a junior trader, also give rise to concern. In addition to these losses, the bank also lost over two billion dollars in mortgage securities. The situation became even worse when one of the bank managers prior to the above-mentioned events sold his shares for millions of dollars.
Investors are getting nervous, leaving securities for money or investing in gold, which rose in price to 930 dollars per ounce. On the whole, the news is not favourable to growth. 
However, it may start within the next few days, due mainly to the fact that trading in the USA is on the rise, in spite of the housing market failure.
The most risky and the most profitable strategy in the present situation is to purchase at extreme falls. But we would recommend staying out of the market for a few days.
Currency Market Summary for the week January 21st – 25th, 2008.