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Analysis

Return Analysis

Russian Stock Market Summary for the week of December 3rd – 7th, 2007.

We would like to suggest that you again return to the previous summary. Almost all the goals stated therein have been achieved by the market. The RTS Index, as expected, broke through 2, 300 points and achieved 2, 323 points (the predicted rate was 2, 320).

Surgutneftegaz has started the long-awaited upward trend, having broken through the resistance levels of 29.25 and 29.7 and is being traded above 30 rubles per share with this month’s high of 30.89 rub. The trend continuation is possible upon reaching the price of 31.035 and 31.33 rubles.
Rostelecom, as mentioned earlier, was steadily growing, and the level of 270 rub. was not able to resist the buyers’ pressure, resulting in a price growth to 289.64 rub. Such a strong trend in this stock looks sufficient, not to say excessive. The psychologically important level of 300 rubles serves as a good guide for the sellers, which have already started acting at 290 rubles. Above the level of 300 rubles there is a wave level of 314.8 rub.
Gazprom is one of the leaders this week. The level of 359 rubles is practically achieved. Apparently after a small correction on the general wave of purchases it can be broken through.
On the general background Nornickel looks not so strong with the low of 6,646 rub. (the rate of 6,650 was forecasted). From the closure of 6.12.2007 at the level of 6,692 rubles (6,697 was forecasted) the growth to 6,880 started. That is a level of strong resistance, in case of the break through of which we can expect further increase with the goals of 6,940 and 6,970 rubles.

The market shows the New Year’s Eve rally, which has been repeatedly mentioned. The investors’ optimism may be staggered only by a surprise from the USA FRB. At a meeting on Tuesday, December 11th, the financial authorities shall decide on the further easing of the monetary policy. If reduction of the rates does not happen, the growth can slow down.
 

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