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Russian Stock Market Summary for the week of November 26th – 30th, 2007.
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The market preserves positive dynamics. The repeated testing of the highs by the RTS index is likely to happen in the first half of December.
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In spite of the continuing mortgage crisis, the foreign stock markets inspired by the signs of a possible reduction of the rate by the US FRB, went up again. Even a reduction of crude oil prices could not prevent the Russian market growth.
The elections eliminated some political risks. Foreign investors may return to the market, which will encourage the growth of stocks prices.
One of the rare exceptions is Nornickel stocks. The prices are testing the trend support at 6, 845 rubles. A breakthrough will set the goals of 6,700 and 6,650 rubles. The market is oppressed with uncertainty of attempts of the basic shareholders to divide the business. However, a strong decrease of this stock is not likely to happen. A correction can start from 6,697 rubles.
Gazprom has worked out the turn scenario around 300 rubles and is already trying to test the highs of early November at 328.5 rubles. The graph shows the double peak figure, which predicts the rate reduction. In case a breakthrough upward does happen, then repetition of the May 2006 rates will be a good closing December rate for this stock.
Our expectations on Rostelecom stocks were justified. After the company reports were made public, the price of its stock grew sharply from 240 to 265 rubles.
There are doubts that the level of 270 rubles will remain unchanged this week, but the first approaches to it will become a good opportunity for the players to take the profit and even begin careful short-term sales.
Surgutneftegaz continues to be traded in the lowering trend. A weak signal of the trend completion is being formed. A breakthrough below 28 rubles has not taken place yet. This makes it possible to expect a gradual growth of rates in the mid-term perspective first to 29.25 rub and then to 29.7 rub.
On the whole, the market is waiting for the New Year’s rally, as a result of which the RTS Index may not only repeat the previous highs but even reach 2,322 points closer to mid-December. Subsequently a significant correction will take place from these rates but it will hardly lead to the change of the current trend.
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