Analysis

	Currency Market Summary for the week of November 26th – 30th, 2007.

Several approaches of the dollar to 0.99 paired with the Canadian dollar finished with a rapid rollback, but the US dollar did overcome this barrier and came back to its par value, this time from below. The rate has been higher than the par value for a long time but the sellers returned it to 0.9985.
At first glance the fact that it all happened with not too good statistics on the US economy seems an explicit paradox. But this is exactly what tells about a possible turn in the short- and mid-term perspective. Apparently the negative data are already reflected in the prices, and now the market is using other interesting information – a large placing of exchequer bonds. With the falling dollar the Americans collected a lot of loans, therefore, those who financed these loans, received guarantees of the dollar strengthening.
So far everything is in favor of the rate reduction at the USA FRB meeting on December 11th, but it is not likely to happen unless new evidence of the mortgage crisis development appears. However, the reduction of the rate by the Bank of England on Thursday, December 6th, is more probable. Though even in case the rate does not change, the pound will fall first to 2.0350, then to 2.0200. The mid-December can prove very unfavorable for the pound.  The level of 2.000 is likely to be achieved and eventually broken through.
The situation with the Euro is similar. The correction to 1.45 appears as the most reasonable starting goal.
The trend of the dollar strengthening may become weaker in the second half of December. But in the beginning of 2008 the Euro and, to a lesser degree, the pound can again begin to grow, whether this will result in new records is hard to say.