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Analysis |
 Return Analysis
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Russian Stock Market Summary for the week of November 5th – 9th, 2007.
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Having shown the new historic high of 2,301 points, the RTS Index was corrected to 2,240 points, which looks as taking of the profit obtained within the last two and a half months of growth. The supports are on the levels of 2,220 and 2,285 points. We say that the decrease was also influenced by the renewal of panic connected with the mortgage crisis but this overseas influence was limited. In the future in case of similar news the Russian market reaction is not likely to be strong. It should also be noted that before the new-year rally, the goal of which is above 2,300 rubles, the market can go below the support level of 2, 185 rubles. Then the levels of 2, 155 and 2,120 may be turning.
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Before closing of the shareholders’ register Nornickel shares rose to the record level of 7, 723 rubles. After such a strong increase a rebound to 7, 300 rub. is quite likely to happen. The demand for the raw material produced by the mining and metallurgical integrated works remains high, which is reflected in the dynamics of the cost of these shares. The above goals are at 7, 878 rub. and under the psychological resistance level of 8,000 rubles.
Gazpromneft shares have been trading recently considerably better than the market. Within a month they grew by 23% while the RTS Index by 7%. Therefore from 127.5 rub sales are expected with the goals of 123 rubles and 120.60 rubles. Rostelecom has been decreasing for a sixth week in a row. For several sessions these shares have fallen sharply at opening, then for the remaining time during the trading have slightly grown. The double entry to the levels of 233.20 and 233.77 rub forms the double peak figure with the goal of at least 239.5. The day closing prices below 235.9 rub will lead to testing the support of 230 rub.
Gazprom continues its growth, which started at the end of May from 222.65 rub. The Friday high comprised 328.50 rub. The closing day prices higher than 322 rub will indicate the continuation of the trend with the goals of 339 rub and 348.4 rub. The correction for 315.8 rub and 310 rub seems to be a convenient possibility for purchases. A small rebound is possible after testing of the level of 332.93 rub.
On the whole the market is ready to continue correction to renew growth to new highs in anticipation of Christmas and New Year’s holidays. In the worst case there can be range trading at the levels of 2, 120 -2, 200 points on the RTS Index but this scenario is not very likely. The pre-election uncertainty is not likely to have a strong influence on the trading dynamics. With the expected victory of the main candidate, the market will continue its growth with the doubled energy.
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