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Return Analysis
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World Financial Market Summary for the week of October 29th – November 2nd, 2007.
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The expected aggressive reduction of the rates by the FRB did not happen. The reduction comprised the moderate 0.25%. Nevertheless, it proved to be sufficient for a new wave of the dollar sales on the whole range of instruments. Gold has already broken through the level of 820 dollars per ounce; the crude oil price reached the high values in 24 years - 96.24 dollars per barrel. The Euro is being traded above 1.45, and has already set the new historic record of 1.4560.
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The fund indexes, which have been rising in anticipation of a more aggressive reduction of the rates, first reacted to this solution by a decline, especially in the financial sector. But there are reasons to expect the renewal of growth in the major stock markets of the world in the near future.
The continuous flow of negative information, connected with the mortgage crisis and its consequences, restricts this increase.
The picture becomes even clearer. The dollar is devaluating, which is undoubtedly profitable for the USA, where the decrease of economic development rate and the further decrease of the rates is expected if not in December, then early in 2008. Since the beginning of the year the dollar has already lost almost 13% with the Canadian dollar. Crude oil prices went up by 64%, and this process is far from being over. A possible turn or at least a significant correction is deferred, most likely, to the beginning of the following year. Even the decision on the rates by the CEB and the Bank of England are not likely to radically change the situation with the dollar weakening. Although in relation to the pound specific fundamental factors, which contribute to its decrease, have already appeared, they have not yet resulted in a correction. The pound rates are not likely to grow. The Great Britain economic statistics leaves much to be desired. However, it is not likely that the pound will react with a strong fall. Anyway even a small decrease will now be taken by the market as an opportunity of new pound purchases.
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