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Analysis

Return Analysis

Russian Stock Market Summary for the week of October 29th – November 2nd, 2007.

A wave of purchases in anticipation of the USA FRB resolution on the rates turned into a significant correction in most foreign stock markets. The resolution corresponded to moderate forecasts – a reduction by 0.25%, which seems to have disappointed investors. However, the growth potential still remains.

The Russian market continued its growth to new highs. The RTS index follows a confident trend and the resistance of 2,250 points is likely to be overcome. The goal for the next two weeks is the level of 2.332 points. The resistance at 2,284 points and 2, 300 points is the intermediate level for profit taking. By the end of the year the RTS Index may be around 2,500 points. From this level a correction to 2,230 is possible.
Such an optimistic forecast is supported by the price dynamics in the raw materials market. Gold has broken the level of 800 dollars per ounce and is being traded around the important resistance of 820 dollars per ounce. Crude oil has come close to 100 dollars per barrel. Though its necessary to remember that the Russian brand Urals is on average 10% cheaper than the American WTI. Moreover, the unsolved problems of the American substandard mortgage may still adversely affect the growth of the world fund indexes.

In compliance with the previous forecasts, Gazprom shares have broken through the level of 300 rubles and now the closest resistance level is 320 rubles, then – 334 rubles. The support lines for the trend are at 309 and 304 rubles. A more important support is at the level of 295 rubles.
In spite of the high crude oil price, Surgutneftegas shares cannot overcome the price stagnation, which started late September from 34.5 rubles. The support is at 30.88 rubles and 31.20 rubles, the resistance is at 32.90 rubles and 33.48 rubles.
After reaching 269 rubles in early October, Rostelecom was corrected to the mid-August level of 238.7 rubles. The turn is expected at 224 rubles. Upon this level breakthrough, the prices of 220 and 217.5 are expected.
As was stated in a number of previous reports, Nornickel shares starting from the support of 6,481 rubles, broke through 7,050 rubles and went up to 7,637 rubles. From this level the correction is likely to start to 7,300 rubles.
The break though the level of 7,650 will make way to 8,030 rubles per share.
Currently the market is showing an impressive growth. The corrections will be seen by the participants as an attractive opportunity for purchases on decline.
 

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