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 Return Analysis
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Russian Stock Market Summary for the week of October 1st – 5th, 2007.
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The resolutions by the CEB and the Bank of England (to a lesser degree) to leave the rates without any changes provided support to both European stock markets and the RTS index, which has confidently passed the level of 2,000 points. The level of 2,161 is expected to be achieved this week. The only concerns are a high inflation rate in Russia and a possibility that the US rates will remain at the same level. However these factors will not have a strong influence on growth of the shares of the most Russian issuers due to a reigning optimism. By the end of the year the RTS Index may test 2, 232, 2, 300 and 2, 324 points, which will be followed by a strong correction.
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Norilsk Nickel is in a correctional phase. The bottom level of 6,547 rubles, which is the lower limit of the rising channel, supports the trend. From the top it is limited by the 6,890 – 6,915 ruble level. The reporting data made public on Friday showed the income growth of 81% and the net profit of 61%. However, these figures were lower than forecasted. Moreover, commercial and administrative expenses have increased by 42%. A long history of the two major shareholders’ opposition is apparently coming to its end. On the basis of the correction in the metal market, these shares fell by 2%, which seems reasonable. But taking into account the general trend of gradual resources because of the US dollar devaluation, we can certainly recommend buying these shares on dips.
Gazprom is getting ready to break through the 300 rub. level, but before that it needs to test the level of 296 rubles by Wednesday-Thursday.
Having reached 18 rub the preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz dropped to 16.55 rub, which looks like a profit taking after the movement from 15 rubles to 18 rubles. The attractive levels for the purchase are 16.187 and 16.05 rubles.
Sberbank shares formed a new rising wave impulse with the goal of 105.60 and 107 rubles. On the way there the 103.80 level will be an obstacle. The rumors of the change of the Bank management spread by the media haven’t yet been confirmed.
On the whole, the Russian market demonstrates its intention to grow till the elections, before which there was a small pause and correction and after a publication of results – continuation of the growth.
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